Laugh at Liberals

Why John Kerry Is Now Toast

The following is an excerp from a story called:
“The Radio Talk Show Amendment, or
Why John Kerry Is Now Toast”

The whole story is much too long to post here.
But, this is the most interesting part:

There are two dispositive factors about the issues in any election. The first is obvious: how many people agree with your (you, the candidate’s) position on an issue, as opposed to how many disagree. But in an era where voter turnout will again be slightly more than half, the other factor can be more important. That factor is intensity. How strong are the feelings of your supporters, compared to the strengths of the opposition?

Stronger supporters of a candidate, or of the issues of a candidate, are more likely to turn out and vote, more likely to give money or time, more likely to encourage others to vote the same way, etc. The passion and dedication of the veterans who believe John Kerry is unfit to command are far ahead of the passion and dedication of the fewer veterans who believe Kerry is fit to be president. That single difference, in my opinion, means that John Kerry’s campaign is now dead, and by his own hand.

Here’s why: There are about eight million veterans of the Vietnam era, about half having served in country. In addition, there are about 16 million veterans of other eras, living today. These 24 million men, and some women, live in every city, town, and hamlet. They work in every business, organization, and civic association. They are members of almost every family in the United States. Among these veterans, support for George Bush was just 4% more than for John Kerry, before the Swift Boat Vets for Truth began their advertising campaign. Today, the Bush margin among veterans has grown to about 24%, or almost 2-1 over Kerry (62-38).

I spent Saturday visiting with Randy Wootton, a lifelong friend who has a marketing firm in Atlanta. We talked about what Kerry did wrong in the planning of his campaign–the Vietnam ploy. We discussed the most powerful form of communication for or against any product, service, or candidate. In the trade it’s called ”viral communications.” Us ordinary folks refer to that as ”word of mouth.” If ordinary people start telling their friends and neighbors to ”go see this movie” or ”go vote for this candidate,” then that movie or that candidate will soon be in high cotton. But viral communications also can work negatively. A movie, candidate, whatever, which is bad-mouthed person to person cannot be salvaged by advertising and pronouncements at the national and public level. That is Kerry’s position right now.

And it gets worse. When A tells B about a movie, one person’s opinion has no greater value than another’s. But what happens when the subject is the military service of a candidate for president? If A is a military veteran, giving his opinion to B who is not a veteran, THAT word of mouth will be even more effective than usual.

As a friend of mine said in an e-mail last Wednesday, this is now a ”water cooler election.” George Bush, as the incumbent president, is a known commodity. The last equation in this election is whether John Kerry is seen as fit, or unfit, to replace Bush, among those voters who already think that a change might be in order. At the grassroots level, the word is spreading like wildfire (at a 2 to 1 rate) among independent and undecided voters that Kerry is unfit.

What if Senator Kerry had called a press conference three years ago to announce that he had ”made some mistakes” in his service in Vietnam and later in his testimony before Senator Fullbright’s Committee on returning home? What if Kerry had given examples of those mistakes at that conference? The press would have largely ignored that conference, because after all, ”Who still cares about Vietnam?” Kerry, who knew then that he intended to run for president in 2004, could have turned this entire subject into ”old news.”

But apparently Kerry had already decided, along with his high-powered, top-dollar, experienced advisors, that he was going to feature his Vietnam experience. Rather than set it aside and deal with more recent subjects, Kerry decided to hang his campaign hat on his four months and 12 days on Swift Boats in Vietnam. His representatives forced that subject into the speeches of most people at the Democratic Convention. Kerry himself slammed the point home from his opening salute to the final paragraphs of his speech accepting the nomination. When John Kerry sat down after that speech, his campaign was already doomed to defeat.

When the Captain of the Titanic ordered 21 knots in the North Atlantic where icebergs had been reported, his ship was doomed. When General Lee ordered Pickett’s charge into the center of the Union lines at Gettysburg, his cause was doomed. If you prefer examples that involve the death of ambitions, rather than human beings, try these: When the Coca-Cola Company introduced ”New Coke,” the effort was doomed before the first ads ran. Or when Gary Hart told the press, ”You can follow me,” his campaign was doomed.

In every instance, the questions the person in charge failed to ask and answer were these: What’s the worst that can happen to me and my cause? And, how can I avoid that fate? Kerry failed to ask and answer those questions. And now his candidacy is doomed by an insolvable, self-created problem.

It isn’t necessary to wait until the end of the Republican Convention to make this year’s predictions. Bush will have a 5% lead after the convention. That will increase to 10% by November 2, and the Electoral College results will be a landslide for Bush. At the same time, the Republicans will gain two seats in the Senate, and 11 seats in the House.

Outside Washington, Republicans will gain one governorship, 121 seats in the various state legislatures, and a substantial number of other state and local offices. Lastly, all these specific predictions are minimums. Any results that don’t match my predictions should be greater than my numbers. If not, label me wrong again. And you won’t have to phone me up; I’ll call the fouls on myself.

About the Writer: John Armor is a First Amendment lawyer and writer who lives in the Blue Ridge section of North Carolina. John receives e-mail at CongressmanBillybob@earthlink.net.