IRAQ’S ELECTION A BUSH SUCCESS
I laughed out loud at Julian’s post characterizing the election results in Iraq as a Bush defeat. In the first place, even if the Shiite parties win every seat, the point was to allow a real election. Shiites are the majority in Iraq, so shouldn’t they have the largest number of seats.
But before you start jumping for joy, you should take into account the fact that the regions of Iraq that are majority Sunni and Kurdish ahve yet to be counted. You should also do some research into the brilliant plan for democracy being set forth in Iraq. The plan devised by the Bush administration. More on that later, first take a look at the real numbers below.
Iraq’s main Shiite Muslim coalition, The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) had more than two thirds of the 3.3 million votes counted so far. The rival list headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi came in second place with 17 percent, the election commission said.
The UIA, which has been blessed by Iraq’s Shiite spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is expected to form the biggest bloc in the new 275-member national assembly.
But the results announced so far do not take account of northern provinces, which will bolster the vote for Kurdish and Sunni parties.
The latest results came from 10 provinces which account for about 35 percent of the country’s polling stations.
Surprise third place went to the virtually unknown National Independent Cadres and Elites list which had 43,383 votes, or about 1.3 percent.
The communist People’s Union had 30,063 votes and the Shiite Islamic Action 24,247 votes.
The list of interim President Ghazi al-Yawar came sixth with 23,349 votes.
Based on the prediction of an eight-million voter turnout, around 29,000 votes are needed to win a single parliamentary seat.
According to today’s partial results, the Sistani-backed list has secured 76 seats in the national assembly.
In Baghdad, with 45 percent of polling stations accounted for, the Sistani list had 610,014 votes compared to 257,366 for the tough-talking Allawi, who is popular in the capital.
ELECTION FACTS: HOW THE IRAQI ELECTION WORKS
In total, 18,900 candidates registered to compete in the elections. These candidates comprise the 256 political entities that appeared on the ballots - 196 parties, 33 coalitions of parties and 27 individuals. The election was conducted on a “closed list proportional representation system” with the entire country considered as a single electoral district. For approximately every 26 thousand votes received, your party or candidate receives one of the 275 seats available in the assembly. The actual candidate who takes the seat is determined by how they are ranked on the party list. The name at the top of the list gets a seat with the first 26,000 votes. The second name gets picked with the second 26,000 votes…and so on. READ ON…..
Under Iraqi Transitional Administrative Law, nominees to the National Assembly had to meet certain criteria. Candidates had to be Iraqi citizens and at least 30 years of age. They must have good reputations and at least secondary school diplomas. Former members of the abolished Ba’ath Party with the rank of Division Member or higher are not eligible. Anyone who held a lower rank must sign a document renouncing the Ba’ath Party and disavowing all past links with it. READ ON….IT GETS EVEN BETTER
Iraqi women played an important role in the 2005 election. The Transitional Administrative Law requires a 25 percent female membership in the Parliament. The U.S. Department of State awarded $10 million in grants to several non-governmental organizations to ensure that women in Iraq are full participants in building this new democracy. The Iraqi Women’s Democracy Initiative helped to fund and train women candidates to compete and lead in the new National Assembly…KEEP GOING…YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS STUFF….
When the votes are counted, the Iraqi people will have elected a 275-member Transitional National Assembly. The Assembly will:
1. Serve as Iraq’s national legislature.
2. Name a Presidency Council, consisting of a President and two Vice Presidents. (By unanimous agreement, the Presidency Council will appoint a Prime Minister and, on his recommendation, cabinet ministers.)
3. Draft Iraq’s new constitution, which will be presented to the Iraqi people for their approval in a national referendum in October 2005.
4. Under the new constitution, Iraq will elect a permanent government in December 2005.
There will be three elections this year. We’ve had the first, the vote for members of the 275-seat National Assembly, provincial governments, and a Kurdistan National Assembly. By Aug. 15, the National Assembly will draft a new constitution. By Oct. 15, Iraqis will vote on a draft of this constitution in a nationwide referendum. Here’s the key, the nationwide referendum vote allows the Sunni or Kurdish minorities to block passage of the constitution. THERE WILL BE NO IRANIAN STYLE MULLAHORCRACY IN IRAQ.
On Dec. 15, Iraqis will go to the polls one final time to elect a democratic government based on that constitution. Then finally, by Dec. 31, the democratic government will take control of Iraq.
When you begin to realize the eloquence of this system you just have to laugh at the Kennedy’s and Pelosi’s who constantly harp about the lack of a plan. Of course, there will be problems. There are problems in our contry, in every country, but the road map to democracy is set. The Shiite majority will, of course, steer the new government towards it’s platform. This will most certainly included some religious pretext for political rule, BUT, this new democracy recognizes that the needs of the few cannot, and will not, be ignored by the wants of the many.
Get a grip, Julian. Recognize that the real success of the Iraqi election was the fact that there was an election and millions of people risked death and murder so they could vote. Get over your Bush hatred and celebrate with them.
Julian Says: February 5th, 2005 at 8:30 pm
Admin. First, is is plagarism when you just cut and paste the words of other people into a document and post it? Just asking? Second, I am familiar with Bremmer’s document. But it is clear that the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is out-maneuvering Bush et al., and the word on the street it that there is considerable panic among administration insiders and at the State Dept. Remember that Sistani is the one who forced this election. Bush et al originally did not want elections but wanted the leadership to be chosen by caucuses instead. The Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is the one who said “no dice, there will be elections or the Shiites will start our own insurgency.” The fact that there was an election represents a victory for Sistani over Bush in the first place. Additionally, the Shiites want us out of Iraq yesterday. Every conversation between Sustani’s people and the US ends with a request for the US to leave immediately. The Shiites also think it’s payback time for what the Sunni Baathists have done to them over the last 3 decades. The Sunnis know that they cannot let the Shiites have Iraq without a fight, so they have nothing to lose by trying to turn the insurgency into a civil war. The Shiites are likely to offer the Kurds independence, which I can’t imaging the Kurds turning down. Then the civil war can be between the Shiites and the Sunnis. The Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has close ties to the Mullahs in Iran and knows that he can turn to them for infinite assistance. Iraq and Iran together will make a formidable foe and will alter middle eastern affairs for the next century. My views have nothing to do with hating Bush, I just think facts show that he and his administration are catastrophically stupid.
Julian Says: February 5th, 2005 at 8:43 pm
Anyone want to talk about Smirkey, Elliott Abrams’s role in the Iran-Contra mess. Smirkey’s Orwellian ways never cease to amaze me.
Julian Says: February 6th, 2005 at 5:10 am
“Al-Sistani, after he found out that both Kurdish leaders sent a letter to President Bush, warned USA via UN that he would not accept TAL in the permanent Iraqi constitution. You figure out whom USA listens to! Kurdish leaders who wrote to President Bush that they are always loyal to USA, or Al-Sistani who claims always he is against USA! Without any doubt USA listens to Al-Sistani, not Kurdish Leaders.” from http://www.kurdishmedia.com/reports.asp?id=2022
The Shi’a risked going to the polls because they want REAL power and Sistani promised them they’d get it if they vote. The Shiite leaders are unlikely to abide by the TAL in any way that violates Islamic law (e.g., women having positions of power, for one example). Sustani doesn’t care about US money. Additionally, the drafter of the TAL had no notion that the Shia turn out would be so much higher than it was for other ethnic groups. The massive Shiite turnout and low Sunni undermined the “elegance” of the TAL principles. That’s why al-Sustani wanted elections and he got exactly what he was playing for.
Julian Says: February 6th, 2005 at 6:48 pm
For more on the Kurd’s desire for independence from Iraq, see the following article on Kurdishmedia.com.
http://www.kurdishmedia.com/reports.asp?id=1851
Kurdishmedia.com is an useful site to get some views of how the Kurds see things unfolding in Iraq.
Julian Says: February 6th, 2005 at 6:54 pm
In poll results published today, 99% of over 1 millions Kurds polled want independence from Iraq.
http://www.kurdishmedia.com/news.asp?id=6212
Julian Says: February 7th, 2005 at 12:49 am
Did you know this? Remember when your administration told you that there were a few hundred insurgents. Guess what, we now know that the number of insurgents outnumber the total coalition forces. At least 200,000 people have joined the insurgency. see http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-1425022,00.html for details.
Julian Says: February 7th, 2005 at 2:08 am
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of
the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
H.L. Mencken (1880 - 1956)
So Mencken was a true prophet after all.
K. Marx Says: February 7th, 2005 at 5:39 am
Is it democratic to abolish a political party?
Julian Says: February 7th, 2005 at 3:45 pm
Admin. Still laughing out loud? Check out today’s headline news “AMERICA’S vision for a democratic, secular Iraq is being shaken by demands from Iraq’s leading religious figure for an Islamic government.” Read more at http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,12177365%255E663,00.html
Admin. Still laughing out loud? Check out today’s Headline story
“Iraq’s top Shiite Muslim cleric has staked out a radical demand that Islam be the sole source of legislation in the country’s new constitution.”
read on at
Anonymous Says: February 7th, 2005 at 5:04 pm
This should be enough for one day but you really must read this article entitled “Sistani begins on his true agenda.” It should leave you doubled over.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GB08Ak01.html
Julian Says: February 7th, 2005 at 5:04 pm
This should be enough for one day but you really must read this article entitled “Sistani begins on his true agenda.” It should leave you doubled over.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GB08Ak01.html
buck Says: February 7th, 2005 at 5:27 pm
Julian,
Yes, I’m still laughing because you still don’t get it. First of all, the source for the material in the article I posted was from the U.S. State Departments News & Information web site. It is posted as a press release for the express purpose of being reprinted and republished.
QUESTIONS:
How do we know how many insurgents there are? Do they have a membership list that they’ve made public recently?
How do you know that millions of people voted because they wanted power? Is that what they told you? Judging by what those people say, they voted because they wanted freedom.
Do you know how close the Iranian Mulluah’s are to losing power and control of their country? What makes you think the Shia’s of Iraq are so ready to embrace the yoke tha the Shia’s of Iran are giving their lives to shed?
Vice President Cheney was on TV this Sunday and made a point to say that the Bush administration never has and does not now expect that the Iraqi democratic government will be like American democratic government. THAT WAS NEVER THE POINT! The point was to offer freedom, by way of democracy, and allow the people to choose how they are governed. AND IT’S WORKING AS PLANNED!
In all of the postings you have made on this site, I have yet to see you lift anything up. You and liberals like you are about tearing things down.
The new democracy in Iraq is far from fully formed and far from being perfect, but it is nothing short of amazing that it even exists. Thanks to the courage of George W. Bush, there were people who voted in Iraq, who less than three years ago were sitting in a prison cell, facing death, because they voiced an opinion.
Yes, Shiites want Shiite Muslim Rule, Sunni’s want Sunni rule, Kurds want independence. SO WHAT? Those are problems that are real that have to be dealt with. If people of your thinking were in charge, They wouldn’t be debating about how they want to be governed, they would be wondering if they were going to live.
God Bless America!
Julian Says: February 7th, 2005 at 6:25 pm
Buck, First of all, why do you people keep calling me a liberal? My core beliefs differ from those of conservatives and liberals (both groups are frauds grappling for power). I believe that all decent people are ashamed of their government, liberal, conservative, or anything else. Unlike liberals or conservatives, I believe in complete freedom of thought and speech. How do I know about insurgency numbers? You read the article, didn’t you. The number 200,000 comes from the head of Iraqi intelligence. Why did Bush et al keep telling everyone that just a few hundred insurgents were fighting? Because they are serial liars. I just hate to see so many people falling for Bush’s lies and I feel sincerely sorry for people who aren’t seeing through it all (Bush is in power now because ya’ll lack curiosity). You also have a painfully naive understanding of the concept of freedom. All politics are about a struggle for power. Imagine the mandate Sistani must think he has by winning 67% of the vote. Damn, Bush narrowly squeaks by in the US election and thinks he has a mandate for radical change (Radical=Conservative. How Orwellian). I also think that you have blindly accepted too much Conservative propaganda if you actually believe that the Iranian Mulluah’s are close to losing power. Now you can’t see that the outcome of the Iraq election demonstrates that when you don’t understand a culture deeply your attempts to control it will produce undesirable and unanticipated consequences. As for your last comment, you have to remember that it was people who think like you that created the hell that the people of Iraq have lived in for most of the past 100 years by empowering the Saddams of the world in the first place. Now your folks are empowering a theocracy - out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.
Suzanne Says: April 3rd, 2005 at 8:19 am
My Oh My
Guess I have been away too long.
So Be Ready!
Mr. Jack Says: May 15th, 2005 at 10:40 pm
Here’s somthing to thhink about. The Iraqi Insergentcy was drasticly less the day of the election, why? because the borders were closed, and security was steped up drasticly, now heres my question why? why don’t they do that every day? any why the hell do we spend BILLIONS on national security every year, when all we really need to do is beef up our intellegence, and our troops are wandering around in vehicals that have vertually no armor plating.
Defence secratary Donald rumsfled was asked this same question by one of the soldiers of the United States Marin Corp, fighting in Iraq, His responce “You can put all the armor in the world on a tank, and it can still be blown up”
My Responce: Well, atleas that tank can’t be shot threw by a fucking 9mm.
pizz Says: June 1st, 2005 at 1:49 am
Julian, It would take me too long to comment on all of the misguided information your putting out. I would just like to comment on 2 items that struck me as very strange: 1. all decent people are ashamed of their government. 2. you are not a leberal.
1. This comment is wrong on so many levels it’s just mind boggling. There are not too many people that agree with all of the views of one party or person. This doesn’t mean they are “ashamed” of that party or person. Most decent and educated people respect the differences of others and try to persuade (through intellect and logic) others to think their way by going through the proper channels (representatives/legislature, focus groups/organizations, etc.). Again, this has nothing to do with “shame”. This is not to say there are not people ashamed of their government because we all know there are. To say “ALL decent people are..” leads me to believe that.. (see 2.)
2. You’re a liberal (and a pretty far leaning left one at that)
Julian Says: August 16th, 2005 at 1:12 am
Are you starting to get the picture yet?
Julian Says: August 16th, 2005 at 1:16 am
“What we expected to achieve was never realistic given the timetable or what unfolded on the ground,” said a senior official involved in policy since the 2003 invasion. “We are in a process of absorbing the factors of the situation we’re in and shedding the unreality that dominated at the beginning.”
Lug Says: October 25th, 2005 at 10:53 pm
Hmmmm…. I see Julian…..you’re an Anarchist!
Yeh…..that will work good!
Maximillian Says: May 4th, 2006 at 5:49 pm
Julian
your one of the leftest liberals i have met and i have met my fair share of liberals. you must live a really sad life!
David Says: July 12th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
I think a Bush success would be something accomplished inside of the U.S. The GOP states they are conservative, yet somehow cannot stop spending money on other countries. How about throwing 94 billion at something AMERICAN? Yes, actually spend money on the U.S. I’m wacky that way. I’m also selfish because I want my tax dollars spent on me. If you are afraid of some other force coming and attacking us, then you have no faith in our military at all.