Global Super Powers And The World of Tomorrow

This post shall be divided into three sections. The First Part shall discuss the threat of Economic take over of China, and the second shall deal with a revived Russian Super Power, and the third shall discuss the United States. This will be an extremely LONG Post. Not for those who skim, I recommend if one wishes to comment on it that they read the entire article so that they do not miss anything.

I. China

1. Introduction:

China is of course, a Communist nation and has been since Mao Zedong proclaimed the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949 in Beijing. From the beginning, the Peoples Republic of China has been a dictatorial one-party state under the Communist Party. However, post-1978 reforms have led to the relaxation, in varying degrees, of party control over many areas of society. Nonetheless, the Communist Party still has absolute control over political aspects of society, and it continuously seeks to eradicate threats to its rule. Examples of this include the jailing of political opponents and journalists, general control of the press, regulation of religions and other non-party organizations, censorship of the press, literature and film, and suppression of independence/secessionist movements. Look into the incident in Tiananmen Square for more information on just how far the Chinese government is willing to go to suppress any threat to its regime.

China is naturally a Nationalist state meaning they love their country enough to destroy all foreigners, and even themselves to protect it. Political propaganda has pervaded many aspects of daily life in China. The history of communist propaganda in China predates the establishment of the PRC, and it has since manifested itself in various forms, such as songs, paintings, posters, and films. Propaganda produced by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been disseminated through state-controlled print and electronic media, and the CCP has made prolific use of the Internet as a means of distributing propaganda to both Chinese citizens and foreigners in the modern age.

2. Conquest of The Global Market.

Right Now, I’d like the reader to take a moment to read a previous post of mine from this site, as it will help tie this all together. It will be re-posted here for the reader’s convenience.

The Issue at hand is Mortgage rates, and why this conundrum of rising interest rates, but low mortgage rates exists.

First off before I start rambling on, lets look at some background information.
The Federal Reserve sets period rates: literally, the “overnight” cost of money. This rate is the rate one bank pays another for have a loan of money overnight. The rationale of banks borrowing from one another is to maintain what are called minimum reserve requirements. If You’re a bank and you have, say, $ 350 million in loans outstanding, you’re required to keep a minimum percentage of those loans, in cash, at all times. So if one day Bank A lends out a little more than it can cover with reserves, it borrows from it’s buddy Bank B, which happens to have a little spare cash on it’s hands.

Long-term interest rates (which include mortgage rates) are an entirely different story. These rates are “set” by the bond market, just the way the stock market “sets” stock prices. Banks, brokerage firms, pension funds, foreign countries, mutual funds, insurance companies and individual investors bid for bonds when the Treasury sells them every three months. The more demand there is the higher the “bid” the less the Treasury has to pay in interest rates to sell them. The Federal government can, and does, try to tinker with long-term rates by buying and selling bonds that it holds. But as big as it is, the Federal government can’t control the global market. These bonds are then bought and sold all day long, fine-tuning long-term rates between Treasury auctions. And because the market is so large and liquid, other long-term loan rates — like mortgages — tend to follow suit.

So, why the conundrum? Several economists have come up with a theory that goes a little something like this.

Say you buy a new pair of sneakers at Wal-Mart that were made outside the U.S. A few of your dollars end up at Wal-Mart headquarters where they’re booked as profit in the company’s next quarterly earnings report. A few more dollars wind up in the hands of the American company that imported your new sneakers. A few more go to the truckers and owners of cargo ships that brought them to you. But a significant chunk of your dollars end up in the country where the products were made.

Last year, around $650 billion ended up outside the U.S. The country with the most, China, took in over $162 billion in 04. Oil producers, lead by Saudi Arabia, received $164 billion from American purchases of gasoline, heating oil and other products made from crude oil.

So what would you do if you were one of those countries with a piece of that $650 billion? You can’t spend it on goods and services: your country has already bought all the stuff from the U.S. that it needs, wants or can afford. You could put it in a bank, but for many countries holding surplus trade dollars, especially those with shaky banking systems, that’s not necessarily a very good Idea

Eventually, those U.S. dollars come back home in return for I.O.U.’s from The Federal Government called U.S. Treasury securities, still one of the safest places in the world to stash cash. As long as our Congress continues to spend more than it rises in taxes, we’ll have plenty of that Treasury debt to sell. All that demand helps keep interest rates low.

One reason China is getting so much attention, aside from the huge chunk of the trade deficit it creates, is that it has kept its own exchange, the Yuan, artificially low by pegging it to the dollar. No one knows just how much it would rise if it were allowed to “Float” but the strength of the Chinese economy indicates that the Yuan should be valued considerably higher relative to the dollar.

The US dollar is at the center of a series of processes that are contributing to global financial imbalances. On the one hand, the growing US balance of payments gap threatens to bring about a collapse in the dollar’s value. On the other hand, action to close the balance of payments gap would almost certainly set off a global recession as the US is the chief market for the export industries of China and East Asia, many of them US-based firms.

So far intervention by the Asian central banks, which have sold their own currencies in order to purchase US financial assets, including a growing amount of government debt, has prevented a precipitous decline in the dollar’s value. But they need to keep the money flowing in and with the US needing around $2 billion a day the amounts are not small. In 2003 dollar purchases by foreign central banks were $616.6 billion, compared to $351.9 billion the year before. The total reserves of the countries of so-called “emerging Asia” rose by more than $350 billion in the year to March 2004, with the central bank of China the biggest buyer of US dollar assets.

Sustained by an incredible $403 billion in foreign reserves, Chinese companies are going on a shopping spree, with a menagerie of elite mainland brands establishing footholds abroad. Leading state enterprises are scouting for overseas partners or takeover targets that offer technology, raw materials and inroads into new markets. Capital is flowing out at record levels—China claimed overseas assets of $35 billion as of the end of 2002. And with a string of new deals either landed or on the horizon, “China will become a visible player not just in the markets for toys and TVs this year,” says Dong Tao, chief regional economist for Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong, “but in mergers and acquisitions around the globe.”

3. Military strength.

One Looks to the future, and can see an obvious Chinese Domination of the entire Global economy, meanwhile the U.S slides further and further and further into debt, so far in fact, that it may not be able to defend itself against a possible upcoming threat posed militarily by not only China itself, but also the reemergence of Russia as a world superpower. (For more information on that, see previous post “The Biggest Issue No One Is Talking About”)

China’s Military might is becoming a rapid problem for the U.S. If War is ever declared on China it will be for one reason and one reason only, Taiwan. Taiwan has been separated from China when it became communist in 1949, But the Peoples Republic of China still considers it a part of Chinese domain, and has decreed a policy of war if Taiwan is to declare their Independence. Naturally The U.S will want to protect Taiwan, after all we are profiting off of it as many of our goods are produced there for cheap wages. This future conflict could spell not only disaster, but also humiliation for The U.S, as Chinese Military might stands at almost twice our own, with peacetime army of over 2.5 Million. Add that to the increased spending in defense that has produced missiles capable of penetrating the defense grid of many U.S naval forces.

3.1 Nuclear Arms

China does have a reasonable nuclear arsenal, but its current policy is to never use them unless nuked first. Therefore it is not likely that any nuclear conflict with china will ever happen.

II. Russia

1. Introduction

Russia is a very interesting topic right now, President Vladimir Puten, the leader of The Russian Federation, seems to be taking steps to Re-Birth the former Soviet Union There are sections of a previous Post here that I’d like to quote.

“The Biggest Issue Nobody is Talking About”.

President Putin, a former KGB heavy back in the days of the original USSR, has forged world alliances, formed his own party, rebuilt Russia’s economy, and now has won such a solid majority for his party in the elections yesterday that he likely has the power to rewrite the constitution at his will and get any law passed he chooses.

He now has four more years to take advantage of Bush’s bankrupting, naive foreign policy and absolute spinelessness. He knows the difference between a bully and someone truly strong. The bully is bold in attacking the weak but cowardly when confronted by anyone who truly is a match. Putin knows Bush loved acting tough by launching a massive attack against Iraq, a nation that had been rendered defenseless by a decade of UN sanctions, but that he doesn’t dare stand up to any real threat: not to Pakistan, not to North Korea, and certainly not to Russia.

2. Rebuilt Economy

In 2004, Russia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 7.1%, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the country’s sixth consecutive year of economic expansion. Russia’s economic growth over the last five years has been fueled primarily by energy exports, particularly given the boom in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period. This Economic growth is Fueled Mainly by Oil and Natural Gas prices. As it stands, Russia is one of the largest exporters of oil in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia. Over 70% of Russian crude oil production is sent directly abroad for export, while the remaining 30% is refined locally. It also holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, with 1,680 trillion cubic feet, nearly twice the reserves in the next largest country, Iran.

3. Military

Russia currently has 1,520,000 military personnel serving in their combined military force, which at the moment is about the same as ours. The Russian military equipment is out dated and far inferior to our own, how ever mass build up of arms and equipment has begun recently wit profits from the Russian oil trade. It’s fair to saw that Russian military might is being significantly upgraded. Russia has the ability to produce and manufacture vehicles and materials to become the most powerful nation in the world. However, because of the economic decline they suffered from Communist rule it will take a very long time for them to even consider getting back on track.

III. The United States

1. Introduction

The United States already has had super power status in the world since the end of the Second World War. Threw careful manipulation of the world around it, it even managed to survive the cold war. Currently it is using this power in a global conflict against terrorism, and Iraq. There are also a great many situations that the United States is involved in on a global scale such as negotiations in North Korea and Iran over Nuclear arms. While the majority of it’s focus is in the middle east the United States is still a very major player on the world scale.

2. Economy

There can be no doubt about it, compared to the immense growth by the other two future super powers, the United States seems to be declining. Don’t get me wrong, The U.S is extremely strong economically RIGHT NOW, being the top in foreign trade, etc… what I’m about to talk about is the decline in GROWTH of our economy, and how we’re endanger of having our economy out produced by the other two future superpowers. As stated above, China owns a massive chunk of Trade deficit as well as Saudi Arabia and other countries. Production has moved over seas to countries like South Korea and Taiwan where labor is cheaper. Major corporations have also taken advantage of tax looph0oles and have moved corporate HQ over seas to avoid paying taxes.

Now, as you’ve guessed I’d like to put in yet another quote from a previous post Thoughts on the Economy

Our deficit ceiling just got raised to $8 trillion. Our annual deficit is running over $450 billion.

An $8 trillion debt might not be such a big deal if we have revenue of $10 trillion a year to work with – we can simply pay it down over 10 or 20 years by reigning in spending a bit.

The fact of the mater is, we are only taking in just under $2 trillion dollars. Now you see the problem.

In order to balance the budget, we need to cut our spending by about 25%.

25%, just to Balance the budget, that’s not including paying the debt we owe other countries, mostly China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

Here’s a quote of the federal budget as of 2003

Defense spending makes up 22% of the budget, and Social Security/Medicare make up 37%. So, combined debt interest, defense, and retirement spending make 66% of the federal budget.

Which leaves just 34% of the budget. Another 3% is law enforcement and general government operations.

Social and development programs, the one thing that seems malleable to those who wish to cut, make up just 31% of the budget, or a total of $605 billion. Included in that number are things like unemployment payments, education, health research, college loan programs, agriculture programs, FDIC insurance of savings. Only about $55 billion total goes to programs for the poor, like food stamps, Medicaid, etc.

This is why you no longer hear the President or conservatives talk about balancing the budget through spending cuts. That old rhetoric about how just by cutting programs for those poor, lazy minorities you could balance things out is replaced by the reality that even entirely eliminating such programs doesn’t even come close to making a dent in things – you could entirely eliminate programs for the poor and still have about $400 billion of deficit, or about 20% of all the rest, much of which is uncuttable.

3. Military

Military is the U.S specialty. The United States currently spends $370.7 billion on defense, that’s more than the next 5 countries combined. Our Current Military strategy is to be prepared to fight 2 wars at the same time, so you can see why such a massive military is required. As it stands the U.S Army has military troops all over the world, From South Korea, to Germany, to Saudi Arabia and of course Iraq and Afghanistan. We have the most high tech equipment available, and currently have a great many contractors working on development of “Next Gen” technology. There can be no doubt about it the military of the United states is, and will continue to be a dominant force in the world so long as we have the man power to maintain it.

IV. Conclusion:

As you can see the Future will be very interesting. No more will things like abortion seem important as we may have 3 superpowers battling each other for supremacy, which brings to mind a question, have we, the human race, learned our lessons from the Cold War when two Super powers fighting for supremacy nearly destroyed each other and the world with them? And what implications will the Mid east with Iran becoming a nuclear power, and Iraq possibly going to civil war, bring upon these superpowers?

Jack Antilla.

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Further Sugested Reading

1. New Yorker.Com “IN YUAN WE TRUST” Oct 7, 2005
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/content/articles/050418ta_talk_surowiecki

2. Frank W Moore, IDDS Research Analyst, ComW.Org “China’s Military Capabilities ”
Oct 7, 2005
http://www.comw.org/cmp/fulltext/iddschina.html

3. Wikipedia.org “CHINA” Oct 7, 2005
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China

4. Wikipedia.org “Economy of the People’s Republic of China” Oct 7, 2005
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_People’s_Republic_of_China

5. The Economist Intelligence Unit, “China” (Economic Structure) Oct 7,2005
http://www.economist.com/countries/China/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Structure

6. Bigpicture.typepad.com “Subsidizing U.S. Borrowing & Spending” Oct 7, 2005
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/10/subsidizing_us_.html

7. Jonathan Weisman The Washington Post “Foreign Investment Aids Cleanup, Despite Adding to U.S. Deficit” Oct 7, 2005
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/20/AR2005092001650.html

8. George Wehrfritz MSNBC “Flush with billions in foreign reserves, China is embarking on a buying spree” (China: Going Global) Oct 7, 2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4432131/site/newsweek/

9. EIA.Gov “Russia” Oct 8 2005,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/russia.html

10. RML “Russian Military links” Oct. 14th, 2005
http://www.edu.uni-klu.ac.at/~kkehraus/

11. Nationmaster.com “Russian Profile” Oct. 18th, 2005
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/rs/Military

12. CIA.Gov “United States” Oct 18th, 2005
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html

13. BLS.Gov “United States Economy” Oct 18th, 2005
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm

I Recommend reference #5 for a visual look at many Charts on Chinese Economics, It may help, it may not.

58 Responses to “Global Super Powers And The World of Tomorrow”

  1. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming Iraqi civil war will drag in the future superpowers, as Iran will certianly take advantage of the situation, and each 3 are already taking stances with Iran.

  2. Like I said, World War III is nigh. You’ve conveniently provided all with the evidence.

  3. Anyway, (sorry-that was a little rude) nobody worry-Jesus said not to…and if you believe in Him, then fear not.

  4. don’t tarnish this post with religion, this post wasn’t created to talk about jesus or the antichrist, this was created to discuss a possible conflict between three superpowers, none of which will go into nuclear war because of the policy of only attacking if attacked, however, a large scale war could be at hand, and the trigger could very well be the Iraqi civil war, I’m interested to know Joy and Pauls thoughts on this subject, as well as lefty’s.

  5. Jack,
    I will read this post tonight and have some comments for you soon.
    Lefty

  6. Joy, I was hoping for your imput on this subject. Same with you Paul.

  7. Jack,
    I’m working on it.

  8. Jack,
    Just one point at this time -
    I happen to think that nukes will come out, but it’ll be from muslim extremists…whether they’re pawns or acting on their own. It would be insane, but that’s what we’re looking at, isn’t it?
    China and Russia have no love for our country, but I agree, I don’t think they’d be stupid enough to directly start a nuclear war. It’s hard to weal power if you’ve been obliterated, which I’m assuming they know they will be if they go there. But, the extremists? Do they care? They’re out for blood and don’t care if they’re obliterated while ridding the earth of infidels. So, I think nukes will come - though not directly from Russia, China or U.S.
    More on the economic and military points you brought up regarding global domination as I have time.
    Very interesting reading - glad you posted it!

  9. The reason I addressed nukes, though they weren’t a major point in your post, is because they will show/affect the direction/stand of China, U.S. and Russia before, during or after any war, and, therefore, I see them as a vital consideration.
    Remember nationalism? This is beyond.

  10. oh yes, nationalism will play a HUGE roll in this, as will the Muslim world. I believe the Muslim world will be a huge trigger for many conlicts, hopefully not resulting in war, but none the less conflicts are sure to arise.

    on the issue of nukes however, you bring up a good point. a wise man once told me, don’t be afraid of the man with 500 guns, as he only has them for intimedation, be afraid of the man with 1 gun as his intent is to use it.

  11. Joy,
    That makes me think of a quote from Einstein - “I do not know what weapons will be used to fight WWIII. But WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

  12. As Iran comes more and more into focus in the media, One notices China and russia shifting uncofertably in their seats, makes one wonder does it not?

  13. Comment #9 reiterated.

  14. Iran has announced it’s officially a nuclear power, and The U.S has given them a time limit to shut down thier nuclear program.

    Havn’t heard much from russia on this topic, I know they’re just as uncomfertable about this as we were since they were leading the negotiaons back in in 2004 to get Iran to halt it’s nuclear ambitions.

    I’m also wondering what the Chineese government is thinking about this, I havn’t heard any news from them since Iran announced it’s status as a nuclear power.

    If any one has any information on this subject it’d be much appriciated, thanks.

  15. Jack,
    I sincerely worry about whether Iran is just blowing smoke. There is a big difference between being able to enrich bomb-quality uranimum and “enriching uranium.” I suspect that Iran’s quality of enriched uranium wouldn’t get them a decent place in a high school science fair. They may be doing what Saddam was doing. Saddam wanted the world to believe that he had WMD at least enough to be afraid to attack him. He knew that if Iran knew that he really didn’t have any way to defend himself that Iran (which has a formidable military, unlike Saddam who was stripped down to nearly nothing by the late 1990s) would attack Iraq and oust him. I just hope that we are not over responding to Iran’s bluff like we did Saddam’s. World War III may have already started but invading Iran, I fear, would just accelarate the collapse into the worst of times.

  16. Ok Jack, I just recently returned and I wanted to reply to this posting.

    1. China.

    Yes they have purchased a large majority of our debt (personally, more than I prefer). Yes, their economy is growing (imagine what it would be like if it was a democracy..shudder). And yes, they will be a super power in the future.

    But let us remember a few inportant items. First, the number of citizens is a massive albatross around thier neck as they must spend a large portion of their capabilities on feeding them. Second, vast portions of China are still stuck in the dark ages, which is ridiculous in terms of potential agricultural production (see first problem). Third, the Chinese still do not have a credible navy nor does it have a respectable logistics system (yet). Fourth, Chinese culture is vastly different then ours.

    What is so important about point four? Well, the Chinese have always KNOWN that they are the center of the world (they called it the Middle Kingdom for a reason). The current government has more in common with the Mandarin Princes of the 18th and 19th century than it does with basic Marxist-Leninist Communism. They have always considered Russia and any nation to the north to be thier worst enemy (any overtures to Russia is pure Chinese politics). Also, the Chinese are more inclined towards the principles of Capitalism, not Socialism or Communism. Finally, the Chinese are very insular and regional minded. China’s history has never been one of great conquest or discovery, but always one of inward struggle.

    Also the third point is interesting, in that China (so far) only has a regional navy and is not capable of projecting power outside the South China Sea. This dovetails with thier current goals regarding Taiwan, but at the same time indicates that they are not interested in “foreign adventurism” (smart people).

    China is only a threat in her own back yard, and even then patient rapprochement is our best option. Given time the reforms put in place in China regarding ownership of property will begin to have thier effect on coming generations.

    In short, China does not have to be our enemy. They will be a superpower, but they do not have to be our enemy.

    2. Russia

    The Russians have one problem. Always have and always will. China

    Since the time of Ghengis Khan, the Russians greatest fears have always been to the east not the west. Even during the Cold War, the Russians were concerned with the actions of those “decadent capatilist swine” to the west but it was China which always kept Russia from getting adventurous. Why else do you think Russia still maintains so may divisions on the Chinese border.

    So they are talking to each other…typical politics - means nothing.

    As for Russia’s resurgence under the leadership of a man who is acting more like a Czar every day…good. Stability is always preferable to instability.

    They do not have to be our enemy either. Let China have that role (no matter what act they try to put on).

    3. United States
    Honestly, I do not see any weaknesses in the economy at the moment. Nothing that isn’t always there at any rate. Beleive me, the Chinese are not going to devalue our debt. Everyone in this world understands that the US is the engine of the world economy and if it collapses under the weight of its own debt EVERYONE WILL LOSE. For more research see the effects of the 1930’s US depression on the world markets.

    Militarily, we have a mind numbing leap in technological capabilities over every other major combatant in the world. As long as we maintain that….nuff said.

    4. Conclusion

    Neither China nor Russia needs to be an enemy. Let us not make them so.

    Our greatest threats in the next hundred years do not come from China, nor Russia, nor thier combined nuclear arsenals. Our greatest threat to our well being and the safety of our citizens comes from two sources.

    1. Muslim Fundamental Terrorists
    2. Gaia Climate Change Religion

    If we have violence commited against our citizens it will be by the first and if we lose freedoms it will be because of the second.

  17. I agree with you completly Paul.

    Neither of them NEEDS to be our enemy, but neither of them trust us either.

    Im not so concerned about theri combined nuclear arsonals, neither of them would be stupid enough to start a nuclear war, my concern is the mistrust between all three of us, and the effects the recent rise in global terrorism will have.

    It’d be great if we were all allies. Our huge compined reasources would no doubt go a great way in healping the world, my concern is that faultline of mistrust.

    Russia doesn’t trust us because the war in Iraq, We don’t trust Russia because of the Reforms of Vladimir Puten, China Doesn’t trust us because of our involvment in korea, the situation of Tiwan, and our bases in south Korea. We don’t trust China because of Tienimin Square and their invilvment with Iran.

    and as you stated earlier, China and Russia aren’t exactly allies either.

    now if I were a terrorist, this is how I’d look at it.

    3 super powers, holding the majority of the worlds economy on their shoulders.

    None of them trust eachother.

    ANd if I could use this mistrust to edge them inot war, my goals would be fulfilled in ways i’ve never dreamed possible

    THe U.S would be out of the middle east, and I wouldn’t have ot worry about any one else comming in because the global economy would collapse completly, turning the world into an economci hell hole that makes the great depression look like a minor drop is stock prices.

    it would be a disaster. horrible. but true.

    I agree we NEED to make friends with china and russia, on this everything depends.

    China claims communism, but your right, they’re capitalists just like the rest of us, albeit they’re government still acts communist. There is no greater proof of this than the Mc DOnalds Flagship store, of 3 square blocks being stationed in the heart of China.

  18. Another threat comes from the idiotic practice of being so open-minded (read “diversified)that our national brains seemed to have spilled out …

    1. We open our borders to all and give them the same rights and privileges that legal citizens possess. ?Can you say ‘muy loco in la cabeza’?
    Excuse me, but if someone breaks into my home, they don’t have the same rights and privieges that my children have…and certainly not more. They have the right to get the heck out and be fed 3 squares in jail.
    2. We call almost everything ok so that no one’s feelings get hurt; not even terrorists’. You know, the ones who kill people and themselves to earn an orgy in the next life. Why not skip the pain, orgy now and leave us alone? Oh, right…something about a holey war for alla (who is NOT the same as the God of Jews and Christians). Call me strange, but somewhere in their hatred and killing of all who disagree, I’m missing the ‘peaceful’ part of islam. Those who have truly read the koran know what I’m talking about.
    3. We overcompensate in the wrong direction and criminalize
    judeo-christian practices rather than known muslim terrorists within our own borders. After all, we don’t want to offend THEM by invading THEIR religion and mosque (read terrorist recruitment and planning center). NOTE: THIS ONLY REFERS TO THE KNOWN ONES, not every mosque.
    Right, remove all traces of God so that those who don’t believe in Him (and of course, it MUST be their way, minority though they are) aren’t offended (2 yr olds come to mind).

    And don’t forget to apologize, you big meanies, for forcing them to look at crosses and nativity scenes and actual ‘r’ ‘u’ ‘l’ ‘e’ ’s’ for all these years! Not to mention having the audacity of actually exposing them to the greatest literary work in history! Oh the horror and shame of it all! To make up, go hug every tree in a mile radius from your house and apologize to the grass before you mow it. Celebrate dirt day and bow to your globe every day before work/school. No, the normal care you take of your community doesn’t count…you must remind yourself every day of what a big pooie you’ve been and do something nice for an animal embryo by fiddling with human embryos to better the lives of the researchers…er…I mean the people who suffer from diseases.

    My son has a old book about a topsy-turvey world where up was down, white was black, and changing the names of things fooled people…it could’ve been written about a modern “liberal” viewpoint. It could also apply to many politicians all along the continuum.

    If we can’t even set firm rules and follow them in our own country, how can we hope to have success against terrorists? Presently we’ve taken an adder to our breast; are we so stupid as to believe it won’t kill us?

  19. Joy,
    Of course those that you oppose feel just as strongly as you do that they are more morally and ethically justified in their views. So your points carry no weight with them - they are mere opinion. As for religion - just substitute the words Zeus for God (Jehova, Yahweh etc) and Apollo for Jesus (Christ, Savior etc) in the text or sermons and you will know how christianity sounds to me. It is an absurd tale woven by nomadic people who mainly hated people who lived in cities. The god of the hebrews clearly was anti-city, favoring the nomads. The so-called “greatest literature” is an incoherent, self-contradictory, story of tribesmen who, like every other tribe on earth, imagined themselves to be the chosen people. Tribalism still keeps it popular today though it has mutated into an even more grotesque mask for the god of war.

  20. I am addin a section on this post about the U.N, should be up inside a few days.

    I feel the recent event of a “Council of Human rights” That includes CHINA, and CUBA, requires some attention in relation to this matter, as I believe the U.N has failed us, more on this in a little bit, I got to finish my reasearch first.

  21. Lefty,
    How many times have you read the koran through? Tell me about the references to the infidels. Show me the scars from the beatings you’ve received at the hands of Christians who live by the Bible.
    You’re extremely ignorant regarding the Bible, no matter how intellectual you try to sound. You’re also, apparantly, extremely ignorant regarding the terrorist mindset. Ever been around one? Ever experienced their rage? Talk about hate crimes…
    See, Lefty, in the real world where people have to actually live around them in fear and trembling, or at the very least - EXTREME caution (or faith) - there’s no jibberish about the Bible being incoherent. Those who know it to be true are at peace and those who revile it in the name of alla are the very ones looting, attacking, beating, and killing people. When was the last time you were attacked, beaten or witnessed your friends/family being murdered because they believed differently than islam? Or any other religion, for that matter?
    I’ve read enough of your ignorance and stupidity. Do not think you have anything informative to say to someone who’s seen more of real life regarding islam than you. You apparently have the luxury to sit and spout your ideas without having them tested by fire, so to speak. When they are, then you’ll have something to say…if you’re still around.

  22. Jack,
    I agree, the UN has failed us. Any organization that tries to unite serious offenders of very basic human rights with defenders of human rights is in trouble from the start.
    It will never work to have the UN or anything like it. Humans are not prone to wisely running the whole world…it’s just another power trip with all the inherent pitfalls on a much bigger scale and affecting a whoooooole lot more people. National leaders are quite enough, thank-you, to try to keep accountable. There is exponentially less accountability to ‘john and joan public’ when it comes to the world-scale leadership - “Global Group Hug” or no. A little hard to ignore that elephant in the room called blatant disregard for basic human rights. Guess we’ll put that elephant in charge of peanut distribution.
    And it’s all eyewash anyway. Smoke and mirrors. The leaders are riding that dead horse while sucking our blood to feed it, and our money to pay them for the privelege.

  23. actually joy, the koran makes no references to infedels.

    and I agree the UN has failed us, but I don’t agree that we should get rid of it all together. THe face time with other countries and the whole diplomatic process goes a great way in making sure we as a species don’t kill ourselves, especially in the age of thermal nuclear warheads, and a raise in global terrorism, Face Time is somtimes all that keeps many countries from all out war.

    I think it needs to be stronger and more firm in it’s actions so that it can more clearly enforce the universal declaration of human rights.

  24. Nutso, I am happy for you that you are a practicing atheist. Worshipping yourself is usually much easier than acknowlegding a higher power.

    Jack, the UN has failed not only us but the entire world. I would agree with you that the face time between national leaders (or thier representatives) is always a good thing and should continue but I am not convinced the UN is the appropriate vehicle.

    First of all the UN was created with some basic intentions that it has been incapable of meeting. Also, it is a vehicle used by some to obtain sovereignty over citizens of the USA. World Court? Does this court allow for the Bill of Rights? Right… get real.

    It is impossible for idealogically opposed individuals or nations to come to any form of consensus and so thus we can only assume that the UN is basically a tool used by the unethical or unlawful to hamstring the efforts of those who seek to use the UN as a vehicle for good in the world.

    Oh and Joy hit the real problem with the UN. NO accountability. Here are people making decisions that could affect our future and we have NO MEANS TO HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE FOR THIER DECISIONS.

  25. Joy,
    I am sorry that you are so afraid of the world. I think that we as a nation are freaking out far too much since 9/11. You are more likely, in reality, to die of a spider bite than a terrorist attack. But that’s just reality which I know is not your primary source of information or guidance. The conservative montra is “we are armed and willing to kill. And we are very very afraid. so watch your step.” Unfortunately, you are murdering rationality and democracy too.

  26. As for the Koran, Joy, my attitude is the same as it is for any primative form of thought - the sooner the irrational believers abandon it the sooner we will move toward a peaceful world. The god of the judeo-christian-islamic world-view is one violent sob. Some of the ways that Jesus is portrayed in the bible are quite appealing and I have adopted those aspects into my lifestyle. I have taken a holy vow never to kill or harm other humans, for instance. I, like one version of Jesus, eschew materialism and the worship of capital. I think that every being is precious and that life is miracle. But the rest is nonsense. You may think that I know nothing about christianity and that’s ok. but I have spent my life among fervent believers and seriously planned to be a minister, studying The Word obsessively for many years and leading religious training and church groups. Still I am often invited to speak to church groups on various topics that I am regarded as an expert in. So, like it or not, I probably do know that world, its history, and its culture more deeply than you believe I do.

  27. And yet we now know that a couple of scandinavian guys working for the UN actually did successfully dismantle Saddam’s WMD program. So perhaps the UN is not such a failure after all. Perhaps the accomplishments of the UN are under rated. See Winston Churchill for some thoughtful statements about the UN. I think that world leaders should be locked in the same room with their enemies until they reach non-violent solutions to the problems. Abolish the UN and you will find out what all-out global anarchy is really like - a country is only as good as its government and the same principle applies to the entire world. That is a universal law.

  28. Just different phraseology, Jack. Trust me on this one. The word isn’t there, but the teaching is. Real life love, faith, forgiveness, wisdom, friends and prayer are the strongest weapons against the sickness of terrorist tactics in one-on-one.

    Regarding the UN, I still say face time there is like the meeting of the “Family” heads in The Godfather. Face time can and should be done without the UN.

  29. hey
    i just wanted to say that i have enjoyed this site as a medium for political debate recently…especially from mr antilla, joy and “lefty”. you all clearly do your homework and have given me some food for thought in the past couple weeks. its funny that this site-designed to make fun of liberals-has actually been elevated above that status because of you guys.

    however i would like to express a couple concerns. first, and more generally, its unfortunate that so many people who post here have such unidimensional views of things. in political debate, your inquiries and answers SHOULD BE intellectual rather than dogmatic. thanks be to you who try to be a bit more impartial.

    second, to joy, you’ve raised valid points no doubt. but it seems you do have a devotion to your particular brand of religion-whether it be judaism/christianity i know not-that exceeds the ability to be rational about it.

    see, i don’t think we should resort to depicting islam as an inferior religion. since were not islamic, how can we possibly understand their thought processes. unethical people are found in every walk of life. i will give you that islam seems to have a militaristic bent for sure-but 1000 years ago there was a little something called the crusades, and people on “our side” committed as many atrocities in the name of their religion as any muslims do. those that dont acknowledge history are doomed to repeat it, ancient though it may be. consider that.

  30. also about the UN-how can an organization that requires unanimous votes on just about any action they attempt hope to accomplish much? it should be obvious that a collection of so many ideologically and economically dissimilar nations won’t be able to get results given that requirement. if it was going to serve a purpose the whole mess shouldve been reformed long ago.

  31. Paul,
    Believing there is not god for me, is nothing more than honesty. I certainly get nothing extra for my troubles. One of my dearest friends who was one of the finest people I have ever known died in a freak accident a couple of days ago, leaving two young children, a wife that adored him, and countless friends who thought he was the greatest. I wish that I had a god to blame or pray to. But wishing for it doesn’t make it so. I have cried buckets of tears this week with more to come but what is just is. I have no ego involvement in my beliefs regarding god and I don’t care what you believe either as long as you don’t use it to harm or oppress others.

  32. Joy, have you read the koran?

    It preaches peace above all. Islamic extramist ignore that part though and focus on the parts about “The Holy Land”

    and “Allah’s Will” which doesn’t neccessarily mean killing.

    Islamic extreamists ignore the peace of the Kroan simular to the way many Christians Ignore the Peace tought in the Bible.

    For example, many people use the Homosexuality as a Sin part of the bible to commit hate crimes and show up to funirils with signs that say “God Hates Fags” yet ignore the part of the bible that says “God Loves All” and “Love The Sinner, but Hate the Sin”

    it works in the same manner, it’s all about interpretation, and unfortunatly Prople like bin laden choose to interpret the koran in a violent way/

  33. hallo
    props to antilla for speaking his mind. it shows the contradictions of the muslim ideology. but it also shows ours. see, in the present day fanaticism won’t work. there is always an example in a particular religion that defies the simple stereotypes associated with it. personally i am one for science, and i don’t see homosexuality as a crime. it ain’t right. and another thing i’ve noted in my years is that generally those who are terminally homophobic can’t reconcile a piece of themselves that they dislike. no doubt you all have written off what ive said-but please dont disrespect my experience. ive been all over the world from morocco to jamaica to vietnam. ive learned humility the hard way-not everyone has the freedom we do in the USA. but the Bush jingosim is a lot of crap. he cares absolutely nothing for us, only for advancing his nutty fundamentalist agenda. i wish that i could say i have faith in the course this nation is taking. but rather than feeling an increasing sense of brotherhood with my nation, i feel that this land has become ever more divisive. everyone who is slightly informed should agree with that. recently, ive come across an abundance of people that think Herr Busch can do no wrong. Wake the F*** up!!! he is a menace to anyone who considers freedom a virtue. and if you cannot acknowledge that, youre just another ignorant soul who thinks blind piety will save you. Er ist einen schlechter menner!! look-the world at tlarge has an extremely terrible view of the usa right now and its easy to see why-we have a madman/monkey/screwup representing us to the point that im afraid to profess my US heritage when i travel abroad. to wit, i love my country but i hate the fact that a no-conscience murdering arrogant petulant spoiled pos brat is running our country. anyone can discount my words but noone living here dares say to me that all this is just.

  34. abereles, You nailed it; “W” is the second-coming of Christ for many conservatives. Sometimes I feel like trying to communicate with a die-hard Bush fanatic is like trying to communicate with someone who is in a coma.

  35. Lefty,
    What a sad time for you, and especially for your friend’s family. I’m sorry.
    I give no platitudes, only sincere sympathy.
    Joy

  36. Abereles,
    I am devoted to my God, however, I’m not devoted to lust for wealth or power - which is the cause of so much grief in ‘religion’. The crusades and other such things (if you happen to backtrack to other comments I’ve made) were/are done in lust for power and wealth - not God. Oh perhaps some serfs or zealots might’ve thought, in blind devotion to greedy abusers, that they were actually doing something good/just/right;
    but sincerety can be sincerely wrong as well. The crusades were wrong.
    I didn’t make a complete point with islam - which you and Jack have so adeptly pointed out. I have read the koran and there are too many openings left for ‘fill in the blank’ ideas and ‘adapt this to fit your agenda’.
    RATIONAL people of all faiths/beliefs know that selfless love is always the aim…which is NEVER going to include ‘hate crimes’ of any kind or harassment or persecution of anyone.
    I do want to clarify that I did not call islam an inferior religion. If I had, however, it is not the same as calling muslims inferior people. Usually, I am much kinder and open-hearted in person than I seem in writing. I would die, if necessary, for a muslim, jew, buddhist, athiest, communist, PERSON because people are valuable. I would die disagreeing with their belief, but knowing that they are a person and therefore priceless in worth.
    So, I’ll defend what I see as best for my fellow man, but I won’t kill or harass others if they don’t agree. I will lash out verbally at times in frustration and/or irritation, but not physically, just for disagreement’s sake.

    I don’t follow Bush. I don’t follow Republicans. I don’t ‘follow’ politicians of any party. I pray for them and I keep my eyes open. If anything, I tend to be distrustful of anything any politician has to say.
    On the other hand, most have some kind of positive influence that needs to be encouraged, so I continue to write letters and make phone calls.

    Regarding the UN, it’s insanity to have thug national leaders guilty of horrendous crimes against humanity (and not just embarrassment) be allowed to even be acknowledged as part of “United” nations, let alone have any say regarding human rights.
    Side note:
    I’m against diplomats of any nation being immune from the law. Um, does this even require thought?
    Another Side note:
    For that matter,
    I’m against politicians, judges, the wealthy, the ‘temporarily insane’, the ‘poor me because of my environment so I couldn’t help becoming a murderer’ people being above the law.

    So, what has been done by the UN that could not have been done without the UN?

  37. Jack, back to the main subject matter.

    I agree with your assesment regarding future agression started by terrorist activity, but really I do not think that either Russia or China could be goaded into a war with the US because of terrorist action. If one of these three countries want it bad enough it could occur, but lets face it……nobody wants it to happen.

    It is called mutually assured destruction.

    Indeed, I am sure some Muslim fanatic hiding in his cave and being chased by Daisy Cutters has come up with this idea, but I doubt they would ever follow through with it, except as an extremely desperate last resort.

    Why? Because nobody likes to be manipulated. Also because the Muslim fanatics do not want Russia or China against them. We idealistic, impractical, deconstructed to uselessness Americans do not frighten them but those Russians and Chinese are ruthless and practical and do not have to worry about citizens getting angry over thier mistreatment of those “poor people forced into this life of terrorism”.

    Actually, I daydream of some silly Al Quaida maniac committing an act of terrorism with WMD against the Chinese. All of our problems would be fixed in less than 24 hours. And we wouldn’t even be the bad guys.

    Of course that won’t happen as the Chinese are smart and avoid foreign adventurism. Perhaps we could learn a lesson or two from them regarding involvement in foreign wars.

  38. Joy,
    Thank you for your kind and compassionate post. It has been hard. My wife is spending the night with our friend and her children trying to comfort them the best she can. But this is a terribly sad time in our lives. Peace

  39. Jack,
    Your superpower veiw of tommorrow is interesting. Here is another view;
    http://www.optionality.net/mag/vision.html

  40. Jack,
    I don’t know if you have read this yet, but I am looking forward to your feedback on this view. Even though it is completely different than your view it does have supporters. The more you think about it the more interesting it gets.

  41. Interesting website Kolran. Sounds alot like a great sci-fi short stor I recently read.

    What the website doesn’ seem to address (unless I did not read down far enough) is that although the government has many negative effects on society, it also provides many positive benefits, i.e. fire and police departmnets. Not to mention protection for the citizens.

    Really, this website strikes me as rather naive, because it makes the assumption that humans are good by nature……need I say more?

  42. Someone please give me an oppinion.

  43. I don’t agree with your view of the world of tommorow because the real WMD of the cold war weren’t newclear bombs. They were ideas. China and Russia could never be enemies as long as China is part communist.

  44. This is Kolran with one more view of the world of tommorrow. Mabye the end of the world is very near. Go to http://www.theskyisfalling.com

    (This is a joke) :)

  45. Koloran.

    little secret, China isn’t Communist.

    They claim to be, but they’re far from it.

    are they a totalitarian government?

    Yes.

    But still, it’s hard to be communist when your country has the flagship Mcdonalds store in it’s heart. Mc. Donalds of corse being a beackon of capitalism.

    In truth the only real communism anymore is north Korea, mostly every one else has figured out it’s a flawed system that doesn’t work.

  46. kolran,

    Interesting view of the future but I find it highly unlikely that government will disappear.

    In relaity there has always been government and alwayse will be government. In the Hunter gathere age when our species first evolved, there was government, and society as well. The Tribe was the nation, and the Chief was the king.

    It’s Human anture to follow the strongest. THough, in todays age government has become much more complex, and we as a species have gone from fighting over a hurd of mammoth with stik and stone, to the potental to go to war over ideas with weapons that can obliterate the planet.

    Though as we’ve discussed, it’s highly unlikey such an event is to occur.

  47. Your wrong Jack, they may have McDonalds, but they’re no democracy. They claim to be a republic (Peoples Republic of China) NOT a communism country by the way. Let’s call China an Oligarchy!

  48. Once again Jack I disagree. Saying cavemen had an organize government is like saying plants are always forming governments and trying to take over the world (they do have kingdoms though. :) I know one to many people who beleive in the post government era to completely dismiss it. However you do have a point when you say “It’s Human anture to follow the strongest.” Maybe all of us will become strong and rule our community as a whole. That was marxist wasn’t it?

  49. I never said China was a democracy, you’re twisting ym words.

    China Is one of the furthest things from a Democracy, they are a dictaitorship.

    But they are a capitalist Dictaitorship even though they claim communism.

    Chineese comunism has slowly colapsed since the Korean war.

  50. Cave men are far from plants. Cave men were capable of alot of higher cognative thoughts.

    Governemts don’t just appear, they had to evolve from somewhere, and from the way I understand it It probably started even befor cavemen.

    Gorillias for example submet to an even more primitive form of monarchy, as they are noticed to submit to the will of the alpha male, this probably developed into the ideals of tribal chieftians in the lithic eras, which evolved into primitive dictaitorships in the neolitic eras of the first Cities of UR and Um Dobligia, and then to monarchies Of the Assyrian And Baybolonian Empires, then into oligarchies such as great britian at the height of it’s Empire, then Into the Democracies of today.

    While yes, there will probably be newer forms of government in the future, ones with lighter control and more freedom, I highly doubt it will disolve anytime soon, unless human nature drasticly changes. Otherwise theres only Anarchy

  51. Jack, Jack, Jack… Tut, tut. Please quote where I said you said China was a democracy. Also point out where I thought cavemen were plants (if you beleive in evelotuion they are related though…) If you say there were governments before cavemen doesn’t that infer plants had a government (if you beleive in evolution).

  52. “Your wrong Jack, they may have McDonalds, but they’re no democracy.”

    “Saying cavemen had an organize government is like saying plants are always forming governments and trying to take over the world”

    And no, plants are incapable of forming governments because they don’t have brains! they’re Imobile, They have no conciousness, etc…

    Gorillias can form a primitive form of social hirearchy because they’re concious social animals. And Even on an evolutionary scale Plants Are No where near Gorillias or humans. Entierly different kingdom, it’s like saying an amemba is related to an elephant because they both came from aminio acid chains Billions of years ago.

    The fact is, as intellegent creatures, even in our most primitive stages we still had social hirearchies that eventualy evolved into the large scale govermants of today.

  53. Okay, you are wrong when you say plants have now brain. They have a nuculi (also know as the control tower of a cell). Also, somepeople don’t think that gorrilas have conscience either (all animals for that matter). Sorry my posts have gotten to be shorter and longer in between (the arguments also have been bad). I have been kind of depresed so please don’t think I am the knid of loser that comes in, shouts insults, and leaves. My grandma is have in kemotherapy, has cancer everywhere, has a tumor in her liver, just had a stroke, and has a blood clot in her leg. I may not be writting much after june 10th because I am going to see her and she doesn’t have a computer. I hope, if nothing else, I can join you discussions next fall.

    Sincerely,
    A. Wannabe Politician

  54. Nuculi aren’t a brain, nuculi control the cells, not the organism.

    and who ever says animals don’t have a conciousnes,… fisrt off they make my head hurt, second they really don’t know their biology. Animals have to have a concious thought pattern inorder to operate, Thats what their organs that give them all 5 sences (6 in the case of sharks and a select few other animals)

    Even if plants were concious they wouldn’t have social hirearchies and governments because theres no need for them, They’re immobile. Theres no competition for reasorces all they do is suck nutrients from the soil, absorb sunlight, and seed.

    Animals on the other hand are mobile, can’t extract food from the sun, so they either eat other animals or eat plants, or both. When theres a compititon for reasorces some tend to realize strength in numbers and form groups, often dominated by the strongest both physicly and mentally. They usually get the first meal, first mate, etc… and it works its way down to the omega who gets the scraps. This extreamly primitive social hirearchy is the basis for what later becomes government. It evoles into large tribal chieftians, then once man settles in cities, it becomes Patisie, a religios kind of dictaitor, thought to have abasolute power, emperrors and sultians, which evolves into kings and royal chorts, which evolves into high councils, which evolve into republics, and thats where we stand today. I argree the Rupublic is just another step government will most likely evolve agian, but it never goes away, Human nature forbids it, we are greedy, selfish, violent creatures, and lack of any control just disolves us into anarchy.

  55. ANd Paul, back to the main subject matter I agree with you 100%, George Washington warned agianst forign entanglements in his farewell adress to the nation yet we fail to heed his warning.

    Terrorism is a strategy, and thats somthing I think people need to learn. Terrorism isn’t some sort of evil spawned from a jellousy of freedom like many of our leaders claim it to be, Terrorism is spawned almost always as an attempt to get occupying countires out of forign land.

    Ironicly Our Country was founded on terrorism, THe Sons of libetry who used to bomb brittish forts, Lexington and concord when colonists fired on retreating soldiers from behind the treeline, The lage mob that firebombed houses of loyalists to the british crown.

    sure, it eventually turned into a real war, but alot of it’s early tactics were nothing more than terror, and I think people need to realize Terror itself is just a strategy.

    Further more I doubt terrorists would Use WMD, their goal is not to kill extreamly large amounts of people, if that were the case they’ve hit the nuclear plant about a hundred miles away from new york.

    no, their goal is for symbolism, The world trade center was a large becon of capitalism, and the people that died were capitalists. The pentagon, was the symbol of the American Military juggernaut. And The White House is a american icon of leadership.

    Chances are if they’re to do anything it’s to hit targets like the statue of liberty, The Space Needle, or, if they’re smart, some random small town.

    the only way WMD would be involved is if a cold war brewed like i stated before, between the three upcomming super powers.

  56. I will let Paul answer post 55, but as for post 54 I dissagree. Ever heard of the word VOLUNTEER? Humans do not volunteer because they get anything. Humans volunteer because it is the right thing to do. In fact in other governments volunteer firefighters are the only people there to save your home if it burns. I therefore disregard your last paragraph. As for the strongest animal getting all of the food. What about mothers? Mother cheetahs (along with many many many other species) give food FIRST to their cubs and then themselves. So, maybe you are wrong, just consider it. Maybe most species think about the survival of their species BEFORE THEMSELVES. I also find it strange that you say “dissolves us into anarchy” yet in another post you said you find it highly unlikely that there will ever NOT be a government (when we were discussing the future). Anarchy is the lack of government.

  57. you’re twisting my words around.

    I said in a hypothetical sence if there were no government it’d be a chaotic anarcist mess, and thats why there will alwayse be a government.

    and yes mothers are a different story when it comes to food order. THey will feed their young based on instinct, but guess what if survival comes down to the mother or the cub, the mother will almost always put it’s self first, remember, self preservation is ingrained into every species.

    ever heard of the saying “Theres no such thing as a selfless good deed”? it’s true, even volenteers volenteer because it makes them feel good, and recognised. even if people don’t recognise it, it still makes them feel good that they’re doing the right thing and thats why they do it. however, the vast majority of the human race is not so kind hearted. without a written set of laws and a law enforcement agencie, we get somthing simular to what happened in new orleans after huricane katrina, you get looting, rape, murder, theft, etc…

    survival of the fitist i suppose.

  58. I did not twist your words, I quoted them. As for mothers. Are there other exceptions. What about Gahndi? As for New Orleans, that never would have happened if those people would have been Christians at HEART!

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